To give you a taste of the speakers at this year’s Arctic15 conference we decided to run a few short interviews. Today we present to you Horace Dediu, the founder and author of Asymco.

Dediu writes about the mobile industry and the changes taking place there. Asymco has been cited numerous times by The Economist and other respected publications. He is also one of the most accurate “non-professional” (by industry standards) analysts on Apple and it’s quarterly financial performance.

You’ll find the interview below, but I would also like to remind startups that today is the last day to apply to our startup competition!


Has working in a startup environment influenced your view of the world?

It influenced my view of large companies. I have worked in several large companies and several startups. There are crucial differences in what I call innovation productivity. They enduring mystery is why large companies, with all their resources, have such low innovation productivity and cannot replicate the disruptive power of the startup. In essence, David vs. Goliath plays out over and over again. I would not say that my experience has influenced this view but it has given me more first hand evidence into its causes.

Do you have any first thoughts on Jolla?

I know very little but I think it’s a brave attempt. It’s tempting to classify the effort as equivalent to other such efforts like Palm’s WebOS or even PalmSource. I don’t want to jump to that conclusion. The way it’s going to play out will depend more on how new opportunities are discovered. I don’t think it’s wise to have a deliberate plan in mind but to be open with how this technology enables new business models.

Are startups using enough industry analysis to understand their opportunities, or are most shooting in the dark?

Industry analysis is necessary but not sufficient to be successful. Actually, in some cases, it’s not even necessary. Analysis might tell you that what you’re trying is impossible because it’s the encapsulation of “expert” opinion and consensus. A successful startup must many times ignore this consensus. It’s not good to be ignorant of it, but it’s also not good to be too mindful of it. The problem with many large companies is that they are very well aware of it and make the analysis a substitute for intuition.

Can you give us a teaser on what you’ll talk about at the Arctic15?

I think these questions and answers form a pretty good teaser.